If someone told you that they were “probably” going to have pasta for dinner, but you later found out that they ate pizza, would you feel surprised – or even lied to? More seriously, what does it mean ...

Interest Rate Probability Distributions Implied by Derivatives Prices is a daily measure of the distribution of future short-term interest rates, calculated from prices of fixed-income derivatives ...

The HBR Playbook on overcoming change fatigue and positioning your people for agility. by Ania W. Masinter The amount and pace of organizational change today is staggering. Gartner research found that ...

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...

The mathematician Daniel Litt has driven social media users to distraction with a series of simple-seeming but counterintuitive probability puzzles. In late January, Daniel Litt posed an innocent ...

Abstract: For on-policy reinforcement learning (RL), discretizing action space for continuous control can easily express multiple modes and is straightforward to optimize. However, without considering ...

The host invites you to pick a door, any door. Let’s say you pick door one. The host throws open one of the doors you did not select, revealing a goat. Then the host gives you the option of switching ...