Three economists grabbed a beer. A multibillion-dollar industry was born.

The Iowa Electronic Markets paved the way for prediction market companies, like Kalshi and Polymarket, that have ballooned into a multibillion-dollar industry ...
Marketplace

AI models are really good at forecasting the weather — and scientists aren't sure why

The accuracy of weather forecasts produced by AI models beat meteorologists’ contemporary methods. But how they work is a bit ...

Prediction markets love sports, but the feeling isn’t exactly mutual

Prediction markets are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while sports gambling falls under the jurisdiction of state governments. According to the American Gaming Association, a ...

Bayes' Theorem: What It Is, Formula, and Examples

Bayes' theorem is a statistical formula used to calculate conditional probability. Learn how it works, how to calculate it ...