Bayes' theorem is a statistical formula used to calculate conditional probability. Learn how it works, how to calculate it ...

Discover how risk-neutral probabilities adjust for risk and ensure fair asset pricing in financial markets; explore their ...

For obvious reasons, it would be useful to predict when an earthquake is going to occur. It has long been suspected that large quakes in the Himalayas follow a fairly predictable cycle, but nature, as ...

Artificial intelligence is increasingly able to simulate human behavior and answer online surveys and political polls, putting the reliability of survey-based research at risk. Consequences can be ...

Our weekly simulation for U.S. Treasury yields and spreads. Read the latest update in the article series, as of February 6, 2026.

Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)-based molecular tests can reliably distinguish multiple sclerosis (MS) from other neurological ...

QUESTION: I have heard there are significant changes to the H-1B lottery this year. How do these changes impact sponsoring ...

It’s finally here; after a tumultuous few years of will-they-won’t-they development, Edmund McMillen ( The Binding of Isaac ...

The post How To Speed Up the Search for Cures Through a Change in Probability Theory appeared first on Reason.com.

Our weekly simulation for U.S. Treasury yields and spreads. Read the latest update in the article series, as of January 30, ...

Donald Trump is entering politically dangerous territory, with voters anxious about the economy, health costs, and his ...

For years, lottery players have followed the same strategies: choose birthdays, anniversaries, or let the system generate random numbers. Others opt for quick picks, hoping for a stroke of luck. But ...